Forecasting for monetary policy making and communication at the Bank of England: a review

In July 2023 the Court of the Bank of England announced that Dr Ben Bernanke would lead an independent review into the Bank’s forecasting and related processes during times of significant uncertainty.  

That Review, published on 12 April, provides a thorough assessment of the Bank’s current forecasting approach, and the relationship between the forecast, monetary policy decisions, and their communication. 

The Review sets out 12 recommendations, which are organised according to three major themes.

  • To improve and maintain the Bank’s forecasting infrastructure, including data management, software, and economic models. 
  • To provide a forecast process that better supports the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) decision-making. This includes equipping the MPC and the Bank’s staff so they can learn from past forecast errors, can identify and quantify risks to the outlook, and deal with uncertainty and structural change in the economy. 
  • To help the MPC communicate its view of the economy, the risks and uncertainties surrounding its outlook, and its policy rationale, to the public.

The Bank welcomes and is committed to action on all 12 of the Review’s recommendations and will provide an update on proposed changes by the end of the year. 

Dr Bernanke’s review

The Bank’s response

News release



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